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Political Crisis in France Eases 10/17 06:09
PARIS (AP) -- France's latest political crisis eased -- for now -- when
Prime Minister Sbastien Lecornu survived two consecutive no-confidence votes
on Thursday, averting another government collapse and giving President Emmanuel
Macron a respite before an even tougher fight over the national budget.
The immediate danger may have receded but the core problem is still very
much center stage. The eurozone's second-largest economy is still run by a
minority government in a splintered parliament where no single bloc or party
has a majority.
Every major law now turns on last-minute deals, and the next test is a
spending plan that must pass before the end of the year.
The drama in parliament
On Thursday, lawmakers in the 577-seat National Assembly rejected a
no-confidence motion filed by the hard-left France Unbowed party. The 271 votes
were 18 short of the 289 needed to bring down the government.
A second motion from the far-right National Rally also failed.
Had Lecornu lost, Macron would have faced only unpalatable options: call new
legislative elections, try to find yet another prime minister -- France's fifth
in barely a year -- or perhaps even resign himself, which he has ruled out.
How France got here
Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024 backfired
on him, triggering legislative elections that stacked the powerful lower house
with opponents of the French leader but producing no outright winner.
Since then, Macron's minority governments have sought to barter support bill
by bill and have fallen in quick succession.
That collides with the architecture of the Fifth Republic, founded in 1958
under Charles de Gaulle.
The system was built for a strong presidency and stable parliamentary
majorities, not for coalition horse-trading or a splintered house.
With no single bloc near an absolute majority of 289 seats, the machinery is
grinding against its design, turning big votes into cliffhangers and raising
existential questions about the governance of France.
For French voters and observers, it's jarring. France, once a model of
eurozone stability, is now stumbling from crisis to crisis, testing the
patience of markets and allies.
A pension law became key
To peel away opposition votes, Lecornu offered to slow the rollout of
Macron's flagship 2023 pension law, which raises the retirement age from 62 to
64.
The proposed slowdown could push the law back roughly two years, easing
near-term pressure on people nearing retirement while leaving the end goal
intact.
The government puts the short-term cost of the delay at 400 million euros
($430 million) for next year and 1.8 billion euros ($1.9 billion) for 2027,
saying it will find offsets.
For many in France, pensions touch a nerve -- the 2023 law triggered massive
protests and strikes that left heaps of trash rotting on Paris streets.
The government then used Article 49.3 -- a special constitutional power that
lets a prime minister push a law through without a parliamentary vote. But the
backlash only hardened.
The budget fight next
With Thursday's reprieve, Macron's government has some breathing room. It
shifts the battle to the 2026 budget, with a debate opening on Oct. 24.
Lecornu has vowed not to use Article 49.3 to pass a budget without a vote --
which means no shortcuts: every line must win support in a fractured chamber.
The government and its allies hold fewer than 200 seats. For a majority,
they need opposition support.
That math makes the Socialists, with 69 lawmakers, and the conservative
Republicans, with 50, both potential swing blocs. But their backing isn't a
given, even though they both lent support to Lecornu against Thursday's
no-confidence motions.
The Socialists say the budget draft still lacks "social and fiscal justice."
Deficit, debt and the rich-tax debate
France's deficit sits near 5.4% of GDP. The plan is to bring it to 4.7% next
year with spending restraint and targeted tax changes while trying to protect
growth.
The left is preparing a renewed push for a wealth-side measure aimed at
ultra-high fortunes.
The government rejects that path and prefers narrower, lower-yield steps,
including measures on holding companies.
Analysts predict hard bargaining over benefit freezes, higher medical
deductibles and savings demanded of local authorities -- each concession
risking votes on one flank even as it gains them on another.
The stakes for Macron
The clock is ticking: Against a year's end budget deadline, the government
must show how it will pay for the pension slowdown and negotiate, in parallel,
with the Socialists and conservatives over taxes and spending.
For the president, success would mean proving that France can pass a
credible budget and start to rein in its deficit without extraordinary
procedural force.
If the talks crack -- on pensions, taxes or spending -- the risks of
Lecornu's government collapsing return, and at the end of the year, France
could find itself back where it started: deadlocked.
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