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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/22 11:39
Stronger Fed Cash Cattle Prices Entice Traders to Push Cattle Contracts
Higher
No new cash cattle trade has developed at this point, but packer interest
should improve this afternoon.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
With the added support of strong fed cash cattle prices, both the live
cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher. No new trade has
developed at this point, but packer interest should improve this afternoon.
July corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.40. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 73.63 points and the NASDAQ is up 131.35
points.
Thursday's export report shared that Beef net sales of 12,300 mt for 2025
were down 16% from the previous week but up 8% from the prior 4-week average.
The three largest buyers were Japan (3,600 mt), South Korea (2,800 mt) and
Taiwan (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 37,400 mt for 2025 2343 up 52% from the
previous week and 68% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers
were Mexico (14,400 mt), China (7,800 mt) and Japan (3,300 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trading with more vigor today as traders are
pleased to see the note of the strong sales in the North yesterday afternoon.
It was assumed that fed cash cattle prices would trade steady at best this week
as packers were able to build up some supply last week and because next week's
schedule will be limited because of the long holiday weekend. Wednesday
afternoon a light movement of dressed sales ranged anywhere from $358 to $370,
but mostly at $360 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The
bullish surprise has helped reignite some bullishness throughout the futures
complex as traders were merely trading the complex steady before seeing the
trade develop. Still no sizeable sales have developed in the Southern plains.
June live cattle are up $1.67 at $215.85, August live cattle are up $2.07 at
$210.72 and October live cattle are up $2.27 at $208.37.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.71 ($360.30) and select up $0.44
($348.72) with a movement of 52 loads (32.81 loads of choice, 7.20 loads of
select, 2.70 loads of trim and 9.61 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the added support of strong sales in the fed cash cattle market, and
upon seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, the feeder cattle complex
is following suit as its contracts are trading higher as well. August feeders
are up $2.97 at $299.40, September feeders are up $3.07 at $298.12 and October
feeders are up $3.20 at $296.00. So long as the support remains ample from the
live cattle/fed cash cattle market, the feeder cattle complex should be able to
maintain its higher trend.
LEAN HOGS:
Surprisingly, the lean hog complex isn't delighted with the fact that the
morning's export report was favorable and that midday pork cutout values are
higher as well. Instead, the nearby lean hog contracts are trading slightly
lower while the deferred months are trading mildly higher. At this point, it's
proving that the market's resistance at $100 is simply too much pressure for
traders to shoulder. June lean hogs are down $0.35 at $99.17, July lean hogs
are down $0.15 at $102.37 and August lean hogs are steady at $102.35.
The projected lean hog index for 5/21/2025 is up $0.41 at $92.75 and the
actual index for 5/20/2025 is up $0.49 at $92.34. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $4.15 with a weighted average price of
$92.45, ranging from $90.00 to $99.00 on 1,431 head and a five-day rolling
average of $95.31. Pork cutouts total 132.17 loads with 108.79 loads of pork
cuts and 23.38 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.57, $100.61.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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